The Red Sea attack crisis has led to continued rerouting of vessels through the Cape of Good Hope, which has not only altered the dynamics of global shipping but has also unveiled an environmental consequence —a surge in carbon emissions.
Earlier, when the crisis started, and the vessels started rerouting, Portcast predicted and informed about the possible increase in carbon emissions, specifically focusing on the South Asia region (India/Colombo) to Europe and the US East Coast.
South Asia Region to Europe: A 50% Surge in CO2 Emissions
Traditionally, vessels from South Asia to Europe have relied on the Suez Canal, a critical shortcut that significantly reduces travel distances and emissions. Portcast's calculations reveal a staggering 50% increase in carbon dioxide emissions for shipping between the South Asia region and Europe.
South Asia Region to US East Coast: A 20% Rise in CO2 Emissions
The impact is not confined to the European routes alone; vessels between the South Asia region and the US East Coast have also experienced a notable increase in carbon emissions.
Portcast's data indicates an approximate 20% surge in CO2 emissions for shipping between the South Asia region and the US East Coast.
Impact of Redirection on Critical Routes
Recent findings from Portcast shed light on the stark increase in CO2 emissions for shipping routes between China, Singapore, Malaysia, and Europe, as well as the US East Coast.
- Singapore/Malaysia to Europe: CO2 emissions increased by 40%.
- Singapore/Malaysia to US East Coast: CO2 emissions rose by 16%.
- China to Europe: CO2 emissions saw a 30% increase.
- China to US East Coast: CO2 emissions increased by 12%.
[Note: Various factors influence CO2 emissions, and these figures represent a general trend observed by Portcast.]
Exceptional Case: Suez Canal Region to Middle East
In an exception that accentuates the situation's complexity, the route from the Suez Canal region to the Middle East (e.g., Jeddah to Salalah) witnesses an astounding >350% increase in CO2 emissions.
Increasingly, carriers are providing the opportunity for overland transit. For example, the German container line Hapag-Lloyd now offers to transport its customer cargo through Saudi Arabia, enabling the carrier to use the Suez shortcut.
An example of the disruption caused by route redirection is the container on the MAEU vessel (MARATHOPOLIS: 9477804), which has experienced delays exceeding 40 days.
Shippers Need to Leverage Accurate ETAs to Deal with the Red Sea Crisis
What can offer the most assistance to shippers at present? — The answer is:
- Gaining insights into vessel rerouting in real-time and understanding fluctuations in average transit times.
- Leveraging the most accurate ETAs (Predictive ETAs) for their containers from reliable sources.
By utilising the most reliable Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) data for their shipments affected by the rerouting, shippers can strategically anticipate and manage potential delays, effectively preempting downstream supply chain instability.
For example, the ETA evolution graph demonstrates Portcast's capability to enhance the prediction of vessel ETAs well in advance significantly. The Predictive ETA (P-ETA) consistently demonstrates accuracy, closely aligning with the actual arrival time (ATA) as highlighted in the graph above.
Red Sea Attack Impact on Container Vessels: Catalogue of Affected Ships
Stay well-informed using our continuously updated and dynamic spreadsheet, offering real-time insights into vessels affected by the crisis. Our commitment includes providing daily updates to keep the logistics community informed about container vessels undergoing significant route alterations in the Red Sea, redirecting their paths towards South Africa.
If you need confirmation about the status of your cargo and the possibility of delays, we encourage you to schedule a consultation with our team of experts.
Follow our Red Sea Crisis Bulletin to get all the latest updates.